The Chinese Finger Trap

Remember the Chinese finger traps? Those bamboo tubes that you would stick your finger in one end, then the other end. And when you tried to pull out the “trap” closed on your fingers. The harder you pulled, the tighter the trap. You can still get those things at Amazon. Made in China, of course.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_finger_trap

Seems to me as though Mr Trump, in his dealings with China, has fallen prey to this old Chinese trick. Like the 4 year old pulling frantically to get loose, Mr Trump has stuck his tiny fingers of “tariffs” into the Chinese trap of “retaliation”.

There is an old saying : “When your only tool is a hammer, everything looks like a nail”. It seems as though Mr Trump has only one tool in his arsenal. Tariffs. And when tariffs don’t work, pull harder. More tariffs. Harder. More tariffs.

As in his dealings with China, Mr Trump just announced more tariffs with our second most important trading partner, Mexico. Unless they somehow stop immigration he will ratchet up tariffs. Keep in mind that about 40% of Mexico imports are actually dependent on US parts sent to Mexico for final assembly.  Tariffs will impact negatively on US industries .

Back to China. China has a long history of hardship and conflict with the West. The communists took over precisely because of the failure of the nationalist government to deal with foreigners. China is the “Middle Kingdom”. The two characters in the written Chinese language stand for those two words. China has always seen itself as the center of the universe.  Americans are tribal , but compared to Chinese ethnocentrism, Americans are downright globalists. The Chinese will not submit to humiliation. Never.

So, China can and will survive any hardships. After all, the leadership of China does not need to worry about elections. They can dictate  and absorb any economic downturn.

US trade with China accounts for about 13% of China’s trade with the rest of the world. A big chunk. But over the last 20 years China has been expanding markets to the rest of the world. Today, China has a higher percentage of trade with Australia than it does with the US. More trade with the EU. More trade, by far, with the rest of Asia. More trade with Africa and Latin America. In fact, China has focused on Africa and Latin America and has rapidly expanded into those markets. China can withstand a 13% trade hit. Can the US withstand a 16% hit on the other side?

So, Trump’s tariffs will not work. He is caught in the Chinese finger trap with no way out. He just pulls harder and harder.

Trump will not take advice. But on this one, he should. He should find a 5 year old. Because, as any 5 year old can tell you, getting out of the Chinese finger trap is easy. Just give in a little bit. Loosen the grip. Stop pulling so hard. Relax.

You would think the world’s greatest “deal maker” would know by now. Or maybe Trump never played with a Chinese finger trap. Or maybe he got stuck and could not extricate himself.  Perhaps he had to be cut out of the trap by his daddy? At any rate, he is stuck now with no way out.

The Guy At the End Of the Bar

Bartender: Ok, Mack, closing time in 15 minutes.

Guy at the end of the Bar ( GAEOB): (slightly slurring his speech) What a bunch of BS. I paid for my friken drinks. Dammit. One more thing. Didj all see the Bears game?

No one responds.

GAEOB : Stupid coach. He calls a running play on 2nd and one. How’s stupid is dat? He don’t know nuttin. I am smarter than all dem coaches. Pass da ball. Always pass da ball.

Tom (somewhat sober patron sitting at the bar): Yah, but they made the first down and won the game, didn’t they?

GAEOB: Bunch of baloney. I know more than dem coaches. Smarter than all of em. And anudder thing. Build the dam wall. Keep out the Mexicans and the terrorists. A nice big beautiful wall. Dat’s what I say. I got a fence in my yard. You don’t see no terrorists in my yard.

Bartender: Almost closing time, buddy.

GAEOB: Tell ya anudder thing. Those damn Chinese. Don’t talk to me about the Chinese. They cheat. I say, bomb em. Put up tariffs. That’ll teach em.

Tom: But that just makes the things we buy more expensive for us.

GAEOB: Bull- looney. I say don’t buy the Chinese stuff. I never buy Chinese food. Just don’t buy the stuff. I say, shop at Walmart and the Dollar Store. That’ll teach em. Watch em start crawling to us . On their knees. That’ll show the Chinese. And the Japs, too. I say only buy American food. Period. Stop buying chopsticks.

Bartender: OK, bud, you got 5 minutes.

GAEOB: Then there is ISIS. We defeated ISIS. ALL over. All dead. Just like we defeated Iran.

Tom: ISIS is still around. Tens of thousands of them. All over the Middle East and Africa.

GAEOB: Fake news. ISIS is gone. Done. I wiped them out. Another thing. No global warming. No icecaps melting. All fake news. I know more than the scientists. You wanna win a war. Call on me. I know more than the generals.

Tom: Uh… the scientists, highly educated,  have studied these problems for years. And the generals have years of training, education and experience. You know more than them.

GAEOB: Bet your hooters I do. Smarter than all of them. They don’t know nuttin. And all dem darkies on welfare. I say make em work. Nobody gets somethin for nuttin. I know. Tired of all the freeloaders. I get my disability check every month. And my Social Security check. You don’t see me freeloading.

Bartender: OK. Time’s up, old timer. Time to go. the bar is closed.

GAEOB: And anudder thing. The women love me. Love it when I grab em. I am the best, I tell you, the best. I never even met Cohen. Who is Manafort? No Trump Tower. No Trump Tower. Fake. All fake. No collusion! Lock Her Up. Mexico will pay….Lock Her Up!!!

Bartender (on the phone): Yep…uh huh…he got out again…PLEASE send the Secret Service over and tell them to keep a closer tab on this guy. While we are talking tabs…he owes me for 2 years…what…sue me? He’s bankrupt again? I should just charge it to the Treasury?

And so goes the Guy At the  End OF the Bar.

And we will pick up the tab.

 

 

 

Sore Winners, Sore Whiners

In 2016 the folks who voted for Donald Trump got what they wanted. Donald Trump. The Republican party took control of the Senate, the House of Representatives, the White House and the Supreme Court.

Since the election Mr Trump and the Republican party have been able to name 2 new justices to the Supreme Court. These justices will help determine the laws for the next 30 years. They will likely overturn a woman’s right to choose. They will likely continue to support voter suppression laws. As promised.

Since the election Mr Trump and the Republican Party have passed a $1,500,000,000,000 tax cut, with $1,200,000,000,000 of that going to the top 1%. As promised.

Since the election Mr Trump and the Republican Party have done much to gut the Affordable Care Act and cut spending on social programs. They have gutted environmental protections. Sold public land to gas and oil and timber leases for corporate profit. Built the pipeline. Added billions to the military. As promised.

Since the election Mr Trump and the Republican Party have dropped out of the Global Warming agreements, dropped out of the US-Asian trade agreements, imposed tariffs on China and Europe and in general done everything possible to destroy international treaties and cooperation. As promised.

So, why are they so mad? Why are they so unhappy? Why are the Trump supporters still chanting “Lock Her Up”? Why are they frightened  all the time? Why do they fear 5 year old Honduran girls? Why so much hate? Why so much whining and complaining?

They wanted a conman, a xenophobe and a racist. They got it. They wanted a political party that suppressed the votes of minorities and that redefined American as “white”, not “diverse”. They got it. They wanted a political party that put profits ahead of people. They got it.

So why the whining? The Republican Party and Donald Trump have had complete control of the political process for 2 years and have accomplished almost everything they wanted. So, why the whining?

There is nothing they cannot make a law about. So, why the whining?

Never in US history have so many “winners” turned into so many “whiners”.

It would be interesting to find out why the folks who won the last election are so miserable.

Performance Review

Donald Trump is visiting Vladimir Putin this week. One on one. No one taking notes (except the KGB who will be recording every word). Some folks are critical of Trump for visiting one of the world’s worst dictators. A man who kills journalists and jails political opponents. Uses poisons to kill enemies. But, to be fair. It has been over a year now since Putin elected Trump. Time for a performance review.

I may be wrong, but I expect the interview will go something like this.

Putin: Welcome my brother. Have a seat.

Trump: Thank you, Mr Putin. So kind of you to see me in person.

Putin: Well.  Time for your performance review. Let me take out my KGB checklist.

Trump: KGB? What does that stand for? Is it like the GOP?

Putin. Yes. It is almost exactly like the GOP.  Except more honest. Now. item #1: Does the subject understand what his role is ? Answer: Yes. He is aware of who he works for.

Trump: Yes, sir. My role is president . I am the most powerful man on earth.I have many hotels and golf courses. I also have….

Putin (interrupting) Yes. Yes. Item #2: Has the subject sought to undermine western alliances? I would give you a big Y-E-S on that one, Donald. You have done a fine job of trying to destroy the European Union and NATO. Hate NATO. NATO has to go.

Trump: NATO has to go. NATO is bad. What is NATO? Is it a kind of soft drink, like Diet Cola? If it is Diet Cola then I say we keep it. If not, don’t keep it. That’s what people say. Also, did you know….

Putin (interrupting). Yes. Yes. Whatever. Onward to Item #3: Has the subject tried to destabilize international trade agreements? I give you an A- on that one. You have done a good job of destroying US exports by your trade war. Keep it up. Job well done.

Trump: Thank you, sir. I did my best. Did you like the way I claimed Canada had a trade surplus. WOW. That punk Trudeau did not know what to say. And how about those European tariffs. HA. Those smarty pants gay lovers really got burned . And another thing, I….

Putin (interrupting, and very testy). YES.. Yes already. (in Russian to his KGB comrades: Will this useful idiot ever shut up about himself?). One last item. #4: Has the subject perfected the BIG LIE technique?  I would give you an A plus plus for that one. I used to think Stalin was the master of the BIG LIE, but you, my little Donald, have outdone them all. So many to choose from. Each one bigger than the previous.

Trump: I do my best. I think I am the best with words, don’t you. I use those words you gave me. I use them over and over. Words like: “Lock Her Up” and “Muslim” and “M13” and “communist Democrats” and “Sleep easy, North Korea has no more nukes” and….

Putin: (interrupting again): Yes. Well, comrade. You have used all the words I gave you. You did a good job. Just keep repeating all those words. I have a new list for you for this year. Better words. Just keep tweeting the words I give you.

Trump: Can I use my own words, sometimes? Maybe just once or twice? I know the best words.

Putin: Well….no…not a good idea. Just stick to words we give you. They are working with your base. Simple words. Meaningless words. Easy to remember words. Our new words will be: Mueller is fired. Mueller is a crook. Repeat Donald.

Trump: Mueller is…uh….what was it again?

Putin: Mueller is fired. Mueller is a crook. Repeat.

Trump: Mueller is on fire. Mueller wrote a book. Repeat Donald.

Putin: Oh god. Here. It is on paper. Can you read? Oh. Sorry. I forgot. We will send you a recording. Try to memorize.

Trump: Thank you sir. Did I pass? Did I get a good grade? I got a real good grade at Trump University.

Putin: Yes, Donald. You passed this year’s review. You may go now. Please. JUST GO.

Donald waddles out of the room.

Trump turns to the KGB agents behind the two way mirror. “I told you we should have picked Sarah Palin. At least she can remember her lines.”

Time to Do Nothing

In 1949 Mao Zedong and the communists took over China. They instituted communist policies . In response the US cut off all relations with the People’s Republic of China for many years. Mao was a dictator. Harsh. Ruthless. The US would have nothing to do with him. He was an enemy.

Then, in 1972 , Richard Nixon did what was necessary. Mao did what his subordinates did not want him to do. Nixon visited China, met with Mao and started the opening up of trade and cultural relationships. The rightwing in China and the US were outraged by this betrayal of ideals. They wanted conflict, not reproachment.

The world did not end. The US was not defeated. In fact, over time, China has become a major world player and dominant economic force. A major trading partner with the US.

In 1986 the Russian leader, Gorbachev, met with the US leader, Ronald Reagan. Gorbachev had opened up Russia and the Russian people to the possibilities of democracy. Perestroika and glasnost . Reagan, a fervent anti-communists, saw an opportunity to cooperate on arms control. Both men signed the arms reduction deal which helped defuse the 40 years of hostility and tension between the two superpowers. Both men were criticized as “weak” by hardliners at home.

While Russia has fallen back into a dictatorship, the arms deals have held. Billions that could have been wasted by both nations on military spending has been saved. Not to say that both countries still spend way too much on the military. More than either needs for its defense. It was a bold, unpopular move for Reagan and Gorbachev to make.

But Reagan took a step toward an enemy and helped change the world.

Vietnam was a communist nation. The US fought a long war before ultimately admitting defeat. The hatred of many toward the North Vietnamese (and to some extent the South Vietnamese) was overwhelming. They were ruthless. They were despicable. The hatred of Americans by the millions of Vietnamese who had family killed by the “invaders” was also overwhelming.

In 1994, almost 20 years after the US left Vietnam, Bill Clinton lifted the trade embargo. Once again US companies could do business in Vietnam. Vietnam could be brought fully into the world trading system. Trade between the two nations now has reached billions of dollars a year. Former enemies have become trading partners.

Which brings us to Kim Jung -Un. The dictator of North Korea. Yesterday Mr Kim called for talks with his neighbor, South Korea. And South Korea responded positively. Both sides see no reason for increased hostility and increased fear. The president of South Korea, Moon Jae-in, has asked the US to postpone joint military operations as a gesture of good will. He wants to open up talks with his enemy to the north.

Would it not be nice if North and South Korea opened up more and more trade relations? Would it not be nice if these two nations could tone down the rhetoric and begin more cultural and economic interactions? Hasn’t history taught us that even the most hated  enemies can, over time, become trading partners? And once nations forge strong trade partnerships they both have a stake in keeping the peace and developing economically.

Nixon taught us that. Reagan taught us that. Clinton taught us that. Have we learned?

Let us hope that the US encourages this new interaction between the 2 Koreas. Or at least does not do anything to undermine the possibility of peace. Then, 20 years from now the people of North and South Korea may be able to freely visit each other and take advantage of increased trade and wealth.

If the US just lets it happen. Sometmes just doing nothing is enough.

 

Turkey Tax Theory

For over 30 years I have insisted on cooking the Thanksgiving turkey. I say “insisted”. It is my right as the head of the family. As a man. I decide these things. I know better than anyone else how to cook a turkey, so I take control. End of discussion. (Right, dear?)

I have a very sound theory of turkey cooking. First, you buy a turkey.  Then you cook it. Simple. Common sense.

Of course some folks might look to socalled “experts” when it comes to cooking turkey, but not me. They look in cook books and on line videos and some even ask grandma. But not me. I have a theory and I am sticking to it.

Now, the cookbook “experts” will tell you to cook a turkey at 325 degrees for a certain length of time, depending on the size of the bird. So much for experts. I have been using my own theory for 30 years. Ignoring the experts.

Here’s my theory.  I get a 15 pound turkey. Now, the “experts” say that you should cook a 15 pound turkey at 325 degrees for 3-3 1/2 hours. Balderdash. My common sense theory says  this is a waste of time. I don’t want to wait 3 1/2 hours for a turkey.  So, using common sense and math (Well, a calculator) my theory says this.

Cooking a turkey at 650 degrees will shorten the cooking time by exactly one-half. So, my turkey will be ready at 1 1/2 hours or so. No reason to wait for 3 hours. Simple. To the point. Common sense. A theory any idiot can understand.

I have been cooking Thanksgiving birds like this for 30 years and EVERY year, I mean EVERY year, the turkey ends up charred on the outside, partially cooked on the inside and a smoking mess. There is always a problem with the smoke filling the kitchen and the smoke alarm going off. I solve that easily by opening windows and disabling the smoke alarm ahead of time. Clever. The volunteer fire department is on retainer.

Why does the turkey always burn? For the first 20 years I figured it was a bad batch of turkeys. Not my fault. So I tried every turkey under the sun. I cooked each of the following , in order:

Honeysuckle, Butterball, Jennie-O, Norbest, Shay Brook, Riverside, Foster Farms, Boar’s Head, Plainville Farms, Trader Joe’s , Nature’s Promise, Perdue, Smithfield, Organic Prairie, Carolina, Pilgrim’s Pride, Applegate, Private Selection, O Organics, Cooper Farms.

As fate would have it, every one of these turkeys ended up being defective. They all burned.  They all filled my kitchen with smoke. Sad. Very sad. I thought maybe you just can’t get a decent turkey nowadays.

But then I thought. Wait. Maybe it’s the oven. So, I bought a new oven. Nope. Same problem. No matter what turkey I tried or oven I tried the end product was the same. I know that if only I had the right turkey and right oven my theory would be proven. It is just a matter of time. No amount of evidence can dissuade me from my theory.

Which brings us to the latest Tax Plan.

In 1980 Ronald Reagan had a great theory. A SPLENDID theory. Increase spending on the military. Give money to the rich by lowering taxes and they will create jobs. The economy will BOOM and unemployment will disapper. So, he put the theory into practice.  George H W Bush called it “voodoo economics” and said it would not work. By 1982 the US economy had experienced a recession and unemployment had RISEN to 10.8%. The GDP declined 2.7%. Opposite of the growth expected. Still, despite the evidence, it was a good theory.

In 1990 there was another smaller recession. This time George HW Bush was president. He had run on the slogan of “No New Taxes”. A great theory. Unfortunately circumstances beyond his control led him to abandon that theory and call for “revenue increases” to stabilize spending.  But he still had a good theory.

In 2001 George Bush had a theory. If we cut taxes on the wealthy they will invest in US jobs. GREAT! Wonderful theory. So, Congress cut corporate and individual taxes to stimulate the economy.  And he theorized that we needed to de-regulate big business. Too many restrictions were just strangling these major corporate and financial institutions. So, de-regulate we did. Excellent theory. Of course, it would take a few years for the effects to be felt. But the theory was sound.

And the effects were the biggest recession since 1945. Growth tanked to a negative 5.1%. Unemployment rose to 10%. Big money investors with all that extra capital did not create jobs in the US. Deregulated financial institutions simply made bad loans with investors money and went bust. (Well, they didn’t go bust, they got bailed out. Another theory. Too big to fail… even when they do).

When President  Obama left office unemployment was about 4%. A relatively stable rate. And there were no Obama-era recessions.So, the economy is back on track and continues to chug along. No reason to tamper with it.

BUT, we need to follow theories, not evidence. So, Congress is proposing the biggest tax breaks ever while proposing a massive increase in military spending . In 2015 the USA spent more on the military ($ 597,000,000,000 that’s billion) than the next 10 nations combined. The US spent more than the total spent by China, Saudi Arabia, Russia, UK, India, France, Germany, Japan, S Korea and Brazil…COMBINED). This is not to suggest the US does not need a strong military, but this seems a bit excessive. Spend more, take in less. Voodoo economics, anyone?

So, once again we are following a theory that has been shown to have no evidence supporting it, IF the goal is a stable , fair economic system. But the theory sounds pretty good.

For my part, I continued to use my theory to cook my Thanksgiving turkey. Despite the naysayers. OK, so it got burned again this year. No turkey for Thanksgiving. On the positive side, my wife has made a standing reservation for Thanksgiving at Hop Sing’s Chinese Restaurant.  She is  no theoretician. And I am developing a taste for Mu Shu Pork.

http://www.butterball.com/how-tos/roast-a-turkey

https://www.ranker.com/list/best-turkey-brands/ranker-shopping

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Read_my_lips:_no_new_taxes

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_military_expenditures

Lesson of Brexit

Much to the dismay of the leadership of the UK, the citizens of the UK have voted to leave the European Union. Not by much. The vote was 51.8% in favor of leaving. A scant majority. But enough to overturn an established economic order.

Still, entire regions of the UK voted NOT to leave. Scotland was overwhelmingly in favor of staying joined (62%). London also overwhelmingly in favor (60%). Northern Ireland wanted to remain (56%). But the majority in the rest of Britain did not. And the majority ruled.

Link to map of voting:

No one knows the long term results of this separation. The pundits are having a field day. Mr Obama was sad. Fox News was joyous. As was Donald Trump. Doom and gloom and happiness and joy.

Some see this as a catastrophe for the economy of the UK. With repercussions throughout Europe and even the USA. Nothing investors fear more than instability. No one wants to put their money where it may be unsafe. Especially big investors. Will London cease to be the financial capital of Europe?

Others see this as a strike against globalization and free trade agreements. A strike for independence and freedom for the Brits. The end of the EU. A triumph of nativism and nationalism. Will the rest of the EU follow suit and secede, fragmenting Europe once again?

Of course, the Brits were never fully integrated into the EU anyway. They kept their own currency. They kept control of their borders, except for the flow of capital. And the Brits have always seen themselves as a nation apart (superior to? ) the rest of Europe.

So, what is the lesson learned?

For me the lesson is simple. Representative democracy is not a terribly effective system, but it is the best system human beings have been able to devise. Brexit is an example of what happens when elected leaders refuse to lead. They let emotions, rather than reason, prevail.

Brexit is a good  example of  “direct democracy” in action. A referendum. Letting the people decide. Absolutely idiotic. Referendums are emotional snapshots. They are not the way to make major decisions about longstanding relationships. Run a few more commercials and some people change their vote. Take the same vote next week and have a different result. Appeal to the anti-immigrant sentiment and the complexity of the issue becomes lost.

People are easily swayed by emotional and nationalistic slogans. Make the UK Great Again! Freedom from Tyranny! The EU is taxing us and we get nothing in return!

I can guarantee that most of the people who voted in this referendum know as much about the EU-UK relationship as you or I. Whether they voted for or against, how many actually understood the ties that bind the UK to the EU? How many actually understood the London financial markets and the effect on the pound and euro? How many knew the long  term effects on trading partners like the USA and China?  How many anticipated the slowing of growth over the next 10 years and how that will effect their jobs and income?

Put 10 economists in a tree and shake it. Each one that hits the ground will have a different theory of the effects of Brexit, with all kinds of “data” and predictions. And only one, perhaps none, will be correct.

So, how is the average citizen supposed to understand the complexity of this UK-EU relationship? He simply cannot.  So, he votes based on emotion.

This direct democracy is a failure. Because no matter which side of the issue you were on, the economists and politicians in Parliament and 10 Downing Street understood the issues much better. That is why they were elected. To lead. To make decisions. Not to pass the buck.

So, my lesson learned? We should never have a referendum on the law. Or other important issues. While representatives may not always represent us as we want them to, at least a good portion of them understand issues. And while they USUALLY act slowly, it is better than giving into the whims of emotion. (Think of the Patriot Act as the exception that proves the rule).

The lesson of Brexit? Stick to the awful system of “representative” government. It is still better than the alternatives.

 

Contestant #5: Sanders the Socialist

5th in a series of biased analysis of announced candidates for the office of President of the US.

From Bernie Sanders Issues website: https://berniesanders.com/issues/

The senator from Vermont, a native of Brooklyn, is a self-proclaimed socialist and independent.  Since everyone knows what a socialist is, there is almost no need to go into detail. A socialist is one who hates America, wants to eat babies and tries to destroy all that is good in the world. Someone from, let’s say, Sweden.

That said, Bernie’s website has the usual vague generalities on some topics, specifics on other topics and simply ignores other topics.

For example, he pretty much ignores social issues like gay rights, abortion, etc.

He opposes Wall Street bailouts. He wants to rebuild the crumbling infrastructure. He wants women to have equal pay as men for equal work. He wants tax reform. He thinks the middle class has been screwed. All noble concepts. But the devil is in the details, and he is short on details.

His main area of concern is for working families. He is very specific on raising the minimum wage (to $ 15.00). He wants a one payer health care system. And he wants to make it easier for workers who want unions to unionize. These are areas where he has been consistent throughout his long career.

Most telling, he has opposed all the free trade agreements, going back to NAFTA. That is one area where he differs from most other candidates. He has a record of fighting to keep jobs in the USA. Unique among the candidates. Ever.

He does not seem to have used his political office for personal gain and has no outstanding scandals. But I am sure Fox News is working to create something as we speak.

All in all, a tried and true socialist. Can he win a major election with those credentials? Is it possible ? Does  a socialist have a chance of winning the highest office in the land?

About as likely as a socialist being elected to the US Senate. Or a black guy winning the presidency. Twice. We shall see.